Lumentum Opto-Parts Capacity Sold Out to 2029 on AI Demand
Nvidia-backed Lumentum reports its optoelectronic parts are fully booked through 2029 due to demand from tech companies building faster AI data centers.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 90% |
| 9 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:46 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 94% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 93% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 96% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 02:30 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 02:10 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 01:50 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 96% |
| 6 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 03:00 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 97% |
| 3 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 95% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 96% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 96% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 94% |
| 2 Oct, 12:44 UTC | 95% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 9 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 9 October at 00:24 UTC; Latest articles followed 3h 18m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 9 October at 03:42 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Latest articles.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 90%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. NVIDIA must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on October 31, 2026, for the Yes outcome to occur. The No outcome applies if any other company holds that position at that specific time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story or a temporary price spike as the resolution point instead of the market close on the specified deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? 90% −6
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In this story
- Nvidia
- Lumentum Holdings Inc.