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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability 67%+3
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$86k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
0%50%100%67%21 Oct, 03:43 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now67%
28 Oct, 01:42 UTC67%
28 Oct, 01:28 UTC66%
27 Oct, 09:08 UTC65%
27 Oct, 08:13 UTC64%
27 Oct, 07:57 UTC64%
27 Oct, 06:20 UTC64%
27 Oct, 02:42 UTC65%
26 Oct, 22:30 UTC64%
26 Oct, 19:51 UTC63%
26 Oct, 18:26 UTC63%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC63%
26 Oct, 15:47 UTC62%
26 Oct, 15:09 UTC63%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC62%
26 Oct, 09:53 UTC64%
26 Oct, 08:37 UTC64%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC64%
26 Oct, 06:20 UTC63%
26 Oct, 05:04 UTC64%
26 Oct, 04:04 UTC63%
26 Oct, 03:06 UTC63%
26 Oct, 02:41 UTC63%
26 Oct, 02:27 UTC63%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC65%
26 Oct, 01:27 UTC64%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC66%
25 Oct, 23:14 UTC60%
25 Oct, 21:50 UTC60%
25 Oct, 20:33 UTC60%
25 Oct, 19:39 UTC61%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC60%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC60%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC60%
25 Oct, 01:08 UTC60%
24 Oct, 22:05 UTC59%
24 Oct, 20:51 UTC60%
24 Oct, 19:51 UTC59%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC59%
24 Oct, 14:40 UTC59%
24 Oct, 13:36 UTC59%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC60%
24 Oct, 12:04 UTC59%
24 Oct, 10:10 UTC59%
24 Oct, 09:36 UTC59%
24 Oct, 09:15 UTC60%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC59%
24 Oct, 01:06 UTC59%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC58%
23 Oct, 23:36 UTC57%
23 Oct, 22:42 UTC56%
23 Oct, 22:28 UTC57%
23 Oct, 21:55 UTC57%
23 Oct, 21:11 UTC57%
23 Oct, 20:35 UTC56%
23 Oct, 20:28 UTC56%
23 Oct, 18:14 UTC61%
23 Oct, 17:31 UTC60%
23 Oct, 16:50 UTC61%
23 Oct, 16:29 UTC57%
23 Oct, 15:41 UTC58%
23 Oct, 15:27 UTC59%
23 Oct, 14:51 UTC58%
23 Oct, 14:24 UTC56%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC55%
23 Oct, 13:19 UTC60%
23 Oct, 12:57 UTC61%
23 Oct, 12:02 UTC61%
23 Oct, 11:27 UTC61%
23 Oct, 06:25 UTC62%
23 Oct, 05:39 UTC62%
23 Oct, 05:18 UTC65%
23 Oct, 03:41 UTC64%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC62%
23 Oct, 00:55 UTC61%
23 Oct, 00:09 UTC59%
22 Oct, 23:48 UTC59%
22 Oct, 23:27 UTC60%
22 Oct, 22:46 UTC59%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC59%
22 Oct, 21:02 UTC57%
22 Oct, 20:13 UTC59%
22 Oct, 19:58 UTC60%
22 Oct, 19:23 UTC62%
22 Oct, 18:05 UTC63%
22 Oct, 17:02 UTC63%
22 Oct, 16:05 UTC67%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC65%
22 Oct, 14:54 UTC64%
22 Oct, 14:24 UTC67%
22 Oct, 13:49 UTC66%
22 Oct, 12:00 UTC68%
22 Oct, 11:53 UTC68%
22 Oct, 08:29 UTC67%
22 Oct, 07:08 UTC68%
22 Oct, 06:39 UTC69%
22 Oct, 06:15 UTC69%
22 Oct, 05:53 UTC71%
22 Oct, 02:47 UTC76%
22 Oct, 00:52 UTC76%
21 Oct, 23:35 UTC76%
21 Oct, 23:07 UTC77%
21 Oct, 22:53 UTC76%
21 Oct, 21:41 UTC74%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC73%
21 Oct, 20:20 UTC73%
21 Oct, 19:46 UTC74%
21 Oct, 19:17 UTC73%
21 Oct, 18:34 UTC74%
21 Oct, 18:27 UTC73%
21 Oct, 17:20 UTC74%
21 Oct, 16:58 UTC75%
21 Oct, 16:29 UTC75%
21 Oct, 15:38 UTC75%
21 Oct, 15:25 UTC74%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC75%
21 Oct, 14:23 UTC76%
21 Oct, 13:33 UTC77%
21 Oct, 13:26 UTC77%
21 Oct, 12:14 UTC76%
21 Oct, 11:53 UTC75%
21 Oct, 11:24 UTC75%
21 Oct, 10:54 UTC74%
21 Oct, 06:09 UTC75%
21 Oct, 05:27 UTC74%
21 Oct, 03:43 UTC74%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

NVIDIA must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on December 31, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company holding that top spot results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline, but only the market cap value on the specified final day matters.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 67%
  • No 34%

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