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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in polls ahead of Brazil election

Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and former president Jair Bolsonaro’s son Flávio are neck-and-neck in the race for Brazil's October 4 presidential vote.

7 publishers · 10 articles · first seen 21 Sept 2026 · updated 41d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
0%50%100%100%11 Sept, 18:39 UTCnowAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: The media battle behind Brazil’s election · 26 Sept, 13:01 UTCNews Feed: Scandal and succession in the House of Bolsonaro · 26 Sept, 04:00 UTCThe Guardian US: Lula says Trump wants to ‘colonise’ and capture Brazil’s resources by meddling in election · 25 Sept, 03:33 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll · 25 Sept, 00:35 UTCBloomberg Markets: Sheinbaum Boosts Lula Before Vote as Leftist Allies Grow Scarce · 23 Sept, 20:40 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls · 22 Sept, 03:03 UTCDeutsche Welle: Lula or Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote · 25 Sept, 20:15 UTCFrance 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: ¿Lula o Flávio Bolsonaro? Brasil decide su rumbo político · 25 Sept, 15:03 UTCNew Scientist: Future of Amazon rainforest may hinge on Brazil presidential election · 23 Sept, 18:00 UTCFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: 'Banking on a national brand': Bolsonaro sons Carlos, Jair Renan run for power in Brazil's south · 21 Sept, 17:46 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

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The story so far

7 publishers have covered this in 10 articles since 21 Sept 2026. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines published first, on 21 September at 17:46 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 9h 18m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 26 September at 13:01 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo, New Scientist, Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the polling data in the linked story for the actual election outcome.
  • Flavio Bolsonaro — resolved “Yes” on 5 Oct 2026. The outcome "Yes" occurs if Flavio Bolsonaro is officially announced as qualified for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome "No" applies if he is not announced to qualify for that specific runoff. Readers often mistake general poll standings or candidacy announcements for the official qualification required for resolution.
  • Flávio Bolsonaro — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome is No if he does not win. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final result, but only the actual election winner matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines'Banking on a national brand': Bolsonaro sons Carlos, Jair Renan run for power in Brazil's south97%
  2. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraBrazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls96%
  3. New ScientistFuture of Amazon rainforest may hinge on Brazil presidential election98%▲1 points since the previous source
  4. Bloomberg MarketsSheinbaum Boosts Lula Before Vote as Leftist Allies Grow Scarce98%
  5. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraBrazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll97%
  6. The Guardian USLula says Trump wants to ‘colonise’ and capture Brazil’s resources by meddling in election97%
  7. France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo¿Lula o Flávio Bolsonaro? Brasil decide su rumbo político97%
  8. Deutsche WelleLula or Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote97%
  9. News FeedScandal and succession in the House of Bolsonaro97%
  10. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraThe media battle behind Brazil’s election97%
  11. Market resolved: Yes

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. The media battle behind Brazil’s election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  2. Scandal and succession in the House of Bolsonaro News Feed ·
  3. Lula says Trump wants to ‘colonise’ and capture Brazil’s resources by meddling in election The Guardian US ·
  4. Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  5. Sheinbaum Boosts Lula Before Vote as Leftist Allies Grow Scarce Bloomberg Markets ·
  6. Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
Show 4 more sources
  1. Lula or Bolsonaro as president? Brazil gears up to vote Deutsche Welle
  2. ¿Lula o Flávio Bolsonaro? Brasil decide su rumbo político France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo
  3. Future of Amazon rainforest may hinge on Brazil presidential election New Scientist
  4. 'Banking on a national brand': Bolsonaro sons Carlos, Jair Renan run for power in Brazil's south France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 32d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Flavio Bolsonaro Yes 32d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Flávio Bolsonaro No 11d ago

    The market favoured Yes at 83% a day out, but No won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

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