Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in polls as Bolsonaro sons run for power
Flavio Bolsonaro is polling neck-and-neck with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, while his brothers Carlos and Jair Renan campaign in southern Brazil.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? 96%
- Polymarket Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? 32% +1
- Polymarket Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? 86% −2
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 22 Sept, 00:01 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 23:42 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 19:48 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 11:37 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 97% |
| 21 Sept, 09:31 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 96% |
| 21 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 09:53 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 06:58 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 05:46 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 05:21 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 00:15 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 22:36 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 97% |
| 19 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 11:43 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 97% |
| 19 Sept, 10:39 UTC | 96% |
| 19 Sept, 08:47 UTC | 96% |
| 18 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 22:43 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Sept, 20:38 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Sept, 19:50 UTC | 97% |
| 17 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 14:31 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 12:28 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 08:56 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 05:58 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 04:47 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 04:25 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 03:02 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 02:52 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 00:58 UTC | 96% |
| 17 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 23:56 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 22:09 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 21:35 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 21:12 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 15:26 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 13:02 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 12:09 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 11:40 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 10:54 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 10:01 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 09:54 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 03:58 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 02:22 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 96% |
| 16 Sept, 00:18 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 13:44 UTC | 97% |
| 15 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 12:29 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 11:04 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 10:06 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 96% |
| 15 Sept, 05:58 UTC | 96% |
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Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
In this story
- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
- Flavio Bolsonaro
- Carlos Bolsonaro
- Jair Renan Bolsonaro