Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
The market favoured Yes at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$209k
Total volume$898k
Liquidity$65k
Resolved5 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 10:14 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 97% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the polling data in the linked story for the actual election outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →