Brazil Election Runoff, Pentagon Redeploys UK Based Bombers Hot: $213k traded on its market in 24 hours
The Pentagon moves bombers from the UK while Brazil prepares for its presidential election runoff.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:51 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 10:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 06:40 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 04:20 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 02:50 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 19:22 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 18:09 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 98% |
| 2 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 97% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 95% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 97% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 96% |
| 30 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 10:14 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 07:37 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 04:06 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 11:35 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 11:21 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 08:27 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 06:31 UTC | 97% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 96% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 13:30 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 98% |
| 28 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 08:17 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 04:15 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 96% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 96% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 5 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 5 October at 01:54 UTC. The most recent article, from Bloomberg.com, appeared on 5 October at 02:46 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? — the market puts it at 100%, with $213k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 5 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advances to the runoff or wins the first round outright. It resolves to No if he fails to reach the second round or if the election result is not confirmed by June 30, 2027. Readers often mistake the polling data in the linked story for the actual election outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? 100% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Brazil
- Pentagon
- United Kingdom