Kathy Castor Retains Tampa Bay Seat in Florida Election
The Democratic incumbent defeats Republican challenger Mike Beltran to keep her House seat.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 25% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 4 November at 00:48 UTC; The Hill followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 4 November at 00:50 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet).
One prediction market prices this story:
- Castor, 8+ pts — the market puts it at 22%, with $63 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins Florida's 14th District by a margin of 8 percentage points or more in the 2026 election. It resolves to No if the win is less than 8 percentage points or if the party loses. Readers often mistake the linked story about Kathy Castor for the resolution criteria, but only the final 2026 election results matter.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Castor, 8+ pts 22% −3
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In this story
- Kathy Castor
- Mike Beltran