Castor, 8+ pts
Why it moved: −3 points at 00:58 UTC, after The Hill: Kathy Castor holds on to Tampa-area seat after redistricting — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 22% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins Florida's 14th District by a margin of 8 percentage points or more in the 2026 election. It resolves to No if the win is less than 8 percentage points or if the party loses. Readers often mistake the linked story about Kathy Castor for the resolution criteria, but only the final 2026 election results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 22%
- No 78%