Kalshi Ends Donald Trump Jr.’s Advisory Role Over Polymarket Conflict
The prediction market platform terminates the strategic adviser contract with Donald Trump Jr. due to his firm's financial stake in competitor Polymarket.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Quartz, 37 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 10 Nov, 00:53 UTC | 10% |
| 8 Nov, 22:15 UTC | 8% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Donald J. Trump Jr. respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 12 Nov 2026. Quartz published first, on 12 November at 20:30 UTC; CoinDesk followed 37 min later. The most recent article, from Cointelegraph.com News, appeared on 12 November at 22:05 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CoinDesk (major outlet), Quartz, Cointelegraph.com News.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Donald J. Trump Jr. — the market puts it at 10%, closing 1 Mar 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump publicly endorses his son in the 2028 presidential election before March 1, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? — the market puts it at 11%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if Kash Patel leaves the Trump Administration or is announced as leaving before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before this deadline triggers an immediate "Yes" resolution, even if the departure happens later. The market resolves to "No" if he remains in the Administration past this date without such an announcement.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Donald J. Trump Jr. at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- QuartzKalshi is dropping Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor over Polymarket conflict10%
- CoinDeskKalshi ends Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory contract over 1789 Capital’s Polymarket investment10%
- Cointelegraph.com NewsKalshi ends Donald Trump Jr. advisory role over Polymarket investment: Reuters10%
- Current odds10%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Donald J. Trump Jr. 10%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? 11% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Alert me when the odds move
In this story
- Kalshi
- Donald Trump Jr.
- 1789 Capital
- Polymarket