Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 12 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 13% |
| 6 Nov, 21:45 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 21:23 UTC | 23% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 21% |
| 6 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 05:38 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Nov, 05:03 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 03:37 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 17% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Kash Patel leaves the Trump Administration or is announced as leaving before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before this deadline triggers an immediate "Yes" resolution, even if the departure happens later. The market resolves to "No" if he remains in the Administration past this date without such an announcement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%
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