Jarvis Leads Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Into Final Round Hot: Odds moved 75 points in 24 hours
Casey Jarvis holds a two-shot lead over defending champion Robert MacIntyre and Matt Fitzpatrick heading into the final round at St Andrews.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 4 Oct, 10:33 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 48% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 2 Oct 2026. BBC Sport published first, on 2 October at 18:27 UTC; SkySports followed 40h 05m later. The most recent article, from SkySports, appeared on 4 October at 10:32 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: BBC Sport, SkySports.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Matt Fitzpatrick — the market puts it at 32%, with $740 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top five players at the 2026 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, including ties. It resolves to No if he does not finish in that range. Readers often mistake the current leaderboard position for the final result, but only the official tournament standings count.
- Jeff Winther — resolved “No” on 4 Oct 2026.
- Jacob Skov Olesen — the market puts it at 95%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Jacob Skov Olesen finishes in the top 10 of the 2026 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, including ties. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jordan for the relevant event, but only Olesen's final standing matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Matt Fitzpatrick 32% −16
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Jeff Winther No 2h ago
The market favoured No at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Jacob Skov Olesen 95% +75
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Casey Jarvis
- Robert MacIntyre
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
- St Andrews