Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Set to Fall in 2026 Amid Iran War and Renewable Growth
Researchers project a 0.4% drop in global fossil fuel emissions this year, driven by high oil prices from the Iran conflict and renewable energy expansion.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 67% |
| 12 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 67% |
| 12 Nov, 05:55 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Nov, 00:11 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Nov, 02:20 UTC | 68% |
| 11 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 67% |
| 10 Nov, 05:49 UTC | 60% |
| 8 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 61% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Oil respond.
The story so far
11 publishers have covered this in 13 articles since 10 Nov 2026. New Scientist published first, on 10 November at 01:00 UTC; Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from The Economist, appeared on 12 November at 14:08 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Climate (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Ars Technica (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), New Scientist, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, Deutsche Welle, Latest articles, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Hacker News, Scientific American.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Oil — the market puts it at 67%, with $31 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 Dec 2032. The outcome is Yes if oil remains the top source of global primary energy consumption in 2030. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the year for a different time frame or confuse primary energy with total energy use.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Oil at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- New ScientistGlobal carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock61%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesFossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict61%
- The Guardian ClimateSlight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push61%
- The New York TimesIran War Unexpectedly Drove Down Carbon Emissions This Year61%
- Deutsche WelleIran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows61%
- Latest articlesFossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, research shows61%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesFossil fuel emissions set to fall for first time since Covid, research shows60%▼1 points since the previous source
- Hacker NewsFossil CO2 emissions decrease by 0.4% in 202660%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesHeat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress60%
- Scientific AmericanOil prices are so high that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are dropping60%
Show 3 later sources
- Ars TechnicaHigh oil prices have led to a dip in global carbon emissions60%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesGlobal carbon emissions may have peaked in 2026—but only time will tell64%▲4 points since the previous source
- The EconomistChina’s carbon-dioxide emissions have begun to fall67%▲3 points since the previous source
- Current odds67%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- China’s carbon-dioxide emissions have begun to fall The Economist ·
- High oil prices have led to a dip in global carbon emissions Ars Technica ·
- Iran War Unexpectedly Drove Down Carbon Emissions This Year The New York Times ·
- Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push The Guardian Climate ·
- Global carbon emissions may have peaked in 2026—but only time will tell Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Oil prices are so high that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are dropping Scientific American
Show 7 more sources
- Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Fossil fuel emissions set to fall for first time since Covid, research shows France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, research shows Latest articles
- Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows Deutsche Welle
- Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
- Global carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock New Scientist
- Fossil CO2 emissions decrease by 0.4% in 2026 Hacker News
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Oil · What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? 67% +3
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In this story
- Iran
- Global Carbon Project