Iran Claims Capture of US Underwater Drone Near Strait of Hormuz
Tehran says its navy seized the Anduril-built Dive-LD, while Washington downplays the incident by claiming the vehicle was defective.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 4 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 20:41 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 19:42 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 19:26 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Sept, 18:55 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Sept, 17:56 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Sept, 14:52 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 08:24 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Sept, 07:10 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Sept, 06:46 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Sept, 05:41 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Sept, 04:12 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Sept, 03:58 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Sept, 03:12 UTC | 39% |
| 13 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Sept, 01:29 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Sept, 23:33 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Sept, 22:19 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Sept, 21:13 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Sept, 20:23 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 39% |
| 11 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 35% |
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 8 Sept 2026. All Content from Business Insider published first, on 8 September at 20:24 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 6h 04m later. The most recent article, from Latest from Tom's Hardware, appeared on 12 September at 11:30 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), All Content from Business Insider, South China Morning Post, Latest from Tom's Hardware.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 27%, with $56 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- All Content from Business InsiderIran says it captured an 'advanced' American underwater drone. The US says it was older, malfunctioning, and ‘dead in the water.’—
- South China Morning PostIran says captured US underwater drone in Strait of Hormuz—
- South China Morning PostIran likely to reverse-engineer captured US underwater drone—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIran claims to have captured a US ‘sail drone’ near Hormuz Strait—
- Latest from Tom's HardwareIran could potentially reverse-engineer captured US underwater drone — several Iranian embassies mock US over capture, Navy claims lost Anduril vehicle was defective and unclassified35%
- Current odds27%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Iran claims to have captured a US ‘sail drone’ near Hormuz Strait Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Iran could potentially reverse-engineer captured US underwater drone — several Iranian embassies mock US over capture, Navy claims lost Anduril vehicle was defective and unclassified Latest from Tom's Hardware
- Iran likely to reverse-engineer captured US underwater drone South China Morning Post
- Iran says captured US underwater drone in Strait of Hormuz South China Morning Post
- Iran says it captured an 'advanced' American underwater drone. The US says it was older, malfunctioning, and ‘dead in the water.’ All Content from Business Insider
Related prediction markets
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- Polymarket Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? 27% −7
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In this story
- Iran
- US Navy
- Anduril
- Strait of Hormuz