Idaho Voters Decide on Abortion Ban in Midterm Proposition 1

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 19 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 19 October at 11:00 UTC; The New York Times followed 21h 59m later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 20 October at 09:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act — the market puts it at 10%, with $70 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act passes in Idaho. It resolves to No if the act fails to pass. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming a news headline about voter sentiment counts as the official result rather than the certified election outcome.
• Above 590K — the market puts it at 68%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the total number of votes cast in the Idaho Senate General Election exceeds 590,000. It resolves to No if that total is 590,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the specific proposition on the ballot for the source of the vote count, but the rule depends on the aggregate turnout for all Senate races.
• Above 590K — the market puts it at 72%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if the total number of votes cast in the Idaho Governor General Election exceeds 590,000. The outcome is No if that total vote count is 590,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake this market for resolving based on Proposition 1 results rather than the overall gubernatorial election totals.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.