Hegseth’s Pentagon Overhaul Faces Scrutiny Amid War Efforts
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reshaping the military, a move that could define Trump's second term legacy.
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The odds
All 4 sources published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 15:46 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 27% |
| 13 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 13:59 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 11:52 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 09:58 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 09:23 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 08:53 UTC | 26% |
| 13 Sept, 07:38 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 06:46 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 05:33 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 03:41 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 24% |
| 12 Sept, 22:26 UTC | 24% |
| 12 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 8 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 8 September at 15:30 UTC; BBC News followed 7h 41m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 11 September at 23:07 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), BBC News.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — the market puts it at 24%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026.
- Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 1%, with $667 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2028.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Polymarket Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? 24%
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- Polymarket Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 1%
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In this story
- Pete Hegseth
- Pentagon
- Donald Trump