Hegseth, Mullin Call Trump’s Arch A Generational Defense Opportunity
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin argue in court filings that the proposed monument serves as a critical national security asset.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 82% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 84% |
| 25 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 82% |
| 25 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 83% |
| 23 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 94% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 84% |
| 15 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 51% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 58% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 67% |
| 8 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 58% |
| 4 Oct, 05:37 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 58% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 55% |
| 30 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 60% |
| 29 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 75% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Sept, 20:32 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 58% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 29 October at 20:22 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 84%, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C., after the issuance date and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the proposal itself for the start of construction.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 84% +4
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In this story
- Pete Hegseth
- Markwayne Mullin
- Donald Trump