Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 69%−7
24-hour volume$4
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 69% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 76% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 73% |
| 25 Sept, 20:32 UTC | 62% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 55% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 54% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 51% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 58% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C., after the issuance date and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the proposal itself for the start of construction.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 69%
- No 31%