Hawaii Braces for Hurricane Nolo as Storm Bears Down on Islands
Hurricane Nolo brings 105mph winds and flash flood risks to Hawaii, threatening areas still recovering from previous storms.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 9 Nov, 12:03 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Nov, 04:05 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 14:39 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 11:20 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Nov, 07:18 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 03:21 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 04:06 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 13:47 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 02:06 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 00:17 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 08:10 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:17 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 02:20 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 3% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 4% |
| 11 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 20:41 UTC | 3% |
| 10 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 4% |
| 10 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 6% |
| 10 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 4% |
| 9 Oct, 14:00 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 3% |
| 9 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 9% |
| 8 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 7% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 00:13 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 6% |
| 7 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 5% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 7% |
| 6 Oct, 08:35 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 4% |
| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 5% |
| 5 Oct, 03:07 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 04:58 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 6% |
| 3 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 22:09 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 12:44 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 8% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 04:44 UTC | 5% |
| 1 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 7% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 16:15 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 06:31 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 11:36 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 20:07 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 19:05 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 05:36 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 03:19 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Sept, 02:01 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 01:41 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 18:59 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 16:56 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 16:03 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Sept, 06:16 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 05:16 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 03:23 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 20:25 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 16:58 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 14:32 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 13:33 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 13:11 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 09:31 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 05:49 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 02:26 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Sept, 01:39 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 01:26 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Sept, 00:06 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 17:42 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 13:17 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 06:15 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 05:47 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 05:05 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 04:49 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 03:20 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 18:33 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 20% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 22% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 07:01 UTC | 10% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 26 Sept 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 26 September at 21:41 UTC. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 27 September at 22:59 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 3%, with $152 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph hits Hawaii during the 2026 season. It resolves to No if no such storm occurs in that specific year. Readers often mistake the linked story's immediate threat for the final resolution, but only a landfall within the 2026 season counts.
- Category 1 or above — resolved “Yes” on 9 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Nolo reaches maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph. It resolves to No if it fails to reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the impact on Hawaii for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed measurement determines the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2027 · Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Category 1 or above Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
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In this story
- Hurricane Nolo
- Hawaii