Harry Kane Poised to Extend Bayern Munich Stay Until 2029 Hot: $59k traded on its market in 24 hours
The striker has agreed a new deal in principle with the German club, while other players like Arda Guler and Alex Scott are linked with moves.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 65% |
| 15 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 13:10 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 65% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 62% |
| 15 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 62% |
| 15 Oct, 05:02 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 04:36 UTC | 65% |
| 15 Oct, 03:36 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 01:12 UTC | 63% |
| 15 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 64% |
| 15 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 64% |
| 14 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 64% |
| 14 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 60% |
| 14 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 60% |
| 14 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 60% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 61% |
| 14 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 62% |
| 14 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 16:33 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 16:04 UTC | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 15:31 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 62% |
| 13 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 61% |
| 13 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 60% |
| 13 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 63% |
| 13 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 65% |
| 13 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 65% |
| 13 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 65% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 09:14 UTC | 63% |
| 12 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 04:10 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Oct, 01:56 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 66% |
| 12 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 67% |
| 11 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 17:48 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 00:32 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 00:26 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 20:09 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 18:08 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 14:20 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 05:59 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 05:07 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 63% |
| 10 Oct, 03:33 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 03:05 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 61% |
| 10 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 62% |
| 10 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 61% |
| 9 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 64% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 63% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 67% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 60% |
| 9 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 57% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 56% |
| 9 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 54% |
| 9 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 54% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 12:31 UTC | 54% |
| 9 Oct, 12:02 UTC | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 50% |
| 9 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 51% |
| 9 Oct, 02:28 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 52% |
| 9 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 53% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 53% |
| 8 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 53% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 54% |
| 8 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 55% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 54% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 15 Oct 2026. SkySports published first, on 15 October at 15:37 UTC; BBC Sport followed 4h 05m later. The most recent article, from BBC Sport, appeared on 15 October at 19:43 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: SkySports, BBC Sport.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Harry Kane — the market puts it at 63%, with $35k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or award. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific prize. Readers often mistake the general race for the actual award announcement, which is the only event that matters.
- Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — the market puts it at 97%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Harry Kane places first, second, or third in the final men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. It resolves to No if he finishes outside the top three, if the award is canceled, or if no final ranking appears by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — the market puts it at 63%, with $59k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Yes resolves if Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or, and No resolves if he does not. The deadline for resolution is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the linked story about his contract extension as relevant to the award outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Harry Kane 63% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 97%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 63% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Harry Kane
- Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid
- Liverpool
- Bournemouth