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Green Party Leader Polanski Faces Uphill Battle in Starmer’s Old Seat

The Green Party leader tests voter appetite for ecopopulism in the by-election on October 8.

1 publisher · 1 article · first seen 11 Sept 2026 · updated 47d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
0%50%100%0%12 Sept, 18:39 UTCnow

All 1 source published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
9 Oct, 04:33 UTC0%
9 Oct, 02:14 UTC0%
9 Oct, 01:49 UTC1%
9 Oct, 01:22 UTC1%
9 Oct, 00:55 UTC1%
9 Oct, 00:23 UTC1%
8 Oct, 23:49 UTC1%
8 Oct, 22:36 UTC1%
8 Oct, 22:29 UTC1%
8 Oct, 21:56 UTC2%
8 Oct, 21:13 UTC4%
8 Oct, 20:47 UTC4%
8 Oct, 20:27 UTC4%
8 Oct, 19:58 UTC4%
8 Oct, 18:54 UTC4%
8 Oct, 18:27 UTC3%
8 Oct, 17:57 UTC3%
8 Oct, 17:16 UTC3%
8 Oct, 16:46 UTC3%
8 Oct, 16:22 UTC3%
8 Oct, 15:53 UTC4%
8 Oct, 15:21 UTC4%
8 Oct, 14:12 UTC3%
8 Oct, 13:59 UTC3%
8 Oct, 13:16 UTC3%
8 Oct, 12:38 UTC3%
8 Oct, 12:09 UTC3%
8 Oct, 11:46 UTC4%
8 Oct, 11:25 UTC3%
8 Oct, 10:52 UTC4%
8 Oct, 10:23 UTC3%
8 Oct, 07:06 UTC4%
8 Oct, 04:01 UTC4%
8 Oct, 00:34 UTC4%
8 Oct, 00:27 UTC4%
7 Oct, 22:32 UTC3%
7 Oct, 21:58 UTC4%
7 Oct, 21:04 UTC3%
7 Oct, 20:50 UTC3%
7 Oct, 19:56 UTC4%
7 Oct, 19:27 UTC4%
7 Oct, 18:47 UTC4%
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7 Oct, 16:15 UTC4%
7 Oct, 15:55 UTC4%
7 Oct, 15:24 UTC4%
7 Oct, 14:34 UTC4%
7 Oct, 14:19 UTC4%
7 Oct, 13:51 UTC4%
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7 Oct, 12:58 UTC4%
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7 Oct, 11:52 UTC4%
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7 Oct, 10:44 UTC4%
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7 Oct, 09:40 UTC4%
7 Oct, 09:03 UTC4%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC4%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC4%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC4%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC4%
6 Oct, 12:34 UTC6%
6 Oct, 10:25 UTC5%
6 Oct, 09:48 UTC6%
6 Oct, 07:19 UTC5%
6 Oct, 00:16 UTC7%
5 Oct, 15:42 UTC7%
5 Oct, 14:09 UTC6%
5 Oct, 13:05 UTC7%
5 Oct, 09:47 UTC7%
5 Oct, 07:01 UTC9%
4 Oct, 22:37 UTC9%
4 Oct, 20:05 UTC9%
4 Oct, 19:46 UTC9%
4 Oct, 19:21 UTC10%
4 Oct, 18:47 UTC10%
4 Oct, 18:13 UTC11%
4 Oct, 17:47 UTC11%
4 Oct, 17:27 UTC12%
4 Oct, 16:12 UTC13%
4 Oct, 15:12 UTC12%
4 Oct, 14:52 UTC12%
4 Oct, 01:46 UTC14%
3 Oct, 17:14 UTC14%
2 Oct, 18:26 UTC14%
2 Oct, 15:44 UTC15%
2 Oct, 08:32 UTC14%
2 Oct, 07:15 UTC14%
2 Oct, 06:37 UTC14%
2 Oct, 01:53 UTC14%
2 Oct, 01:26 UTC13%
2 Oct, 00:56 UTC13%
1 Oct, 23:45 UTC13%
1 Oct, 23:25 UTC13%
1 Oct, 22:57 UTC14%
1 Oct, 21:37 UTC12%
1 Oct, 18:50 UTC12%
1 Oct, 16:44 UTC13%
1 Oct, 15:58 UTC14%
1 Oct, 15:27 UTC14%
1 Oct, 14:37 UTC13%
1 Oct, 13:21 UTC14%
1 Oct, 06:22 UTC17%
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1 Oct, 01:05 UTC15%
30 Sept, 23:47 UTC14%
30 Sept, 23:06 UTC14%
30 Sept, 22:51 UTC14%
30 Sept, 22:03 UTC14%
30 Sept, 21:39 UTC12%
30 Sept, 21:08 UTC13%
30 Sept, 20:46 UTC12%
30 Sept, 19:53 UTC13%
30 Sept, 19:24 UTC12%
30 Sept, 18:14 UTC13%
30 Sept, 13:00 UTC12%
30 Sept, 12:53 UTC13%
29 Sept, 12:03 UTC12%
26 Sept, 20:20 UTC13%
26 Sept, 08:30 UTC13%
26 Sept, 08:02 UTC13%
25 Sept, 14:16 UTC14%
24 Sept, 13:09 UTC13%
24 Sept, 12:09 UTC13%
24 Sept, 11:26 UTC13%
24 Sept, 07:47 UTC12%
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23 Sept, 00:34 UTC13%
22 Sept, 23:14 UTC12%
22 Sept, 19:10 UTC13%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC12%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC12%
22 Sept, 17:54 UTC12%
22 Sept, 17:20 UTC12%
22 Sept, 15:17 UTC12%
22 Sept, 14:44 UTC11%
22 Sept, 13:06 UTC11%
22 Sept, 12:37 UTC11%
22 Sept, 11:10 UTC11%
22 Sept, 09:59 UTC11%
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22 Sept, 04:59 UTC10%
22 Sept, 02:40 UTC10%
22 Sept, 02:20 UTC9%
22 Sept, 01:39 UTC9%
22 Sept, 00:38 UTC8%
22 Sept, 00:01 UTC8%
21 Sept, 23:55 UTC8%
21 Sept, 22:41 UTC9%
21 Sept, 22:15 UTC12%
21 Sept, 21:33 UTC13%
21 Sept, 21:16 UTC12%
21 Sept, 20:41 UTC12%
21 Sept, 19:48 UTC12%
21 Sept, 15:08 UTC12%
21 Sept, 14:42 UTC12%
21 Sept, 14:14 UTC12%
21 Sept, 12:43 UTC11%
21 Sept, 11:44 UTC12%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC14%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC14%
21 Sept, 01:35 UTC14%
21 Sept, 00:07 UTC15%
20 Sept, 23:24 UTC14%
20 Sept, 18:52 UTC14%
20 Sept, 17:29 UTC14%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC14%
20 Sept, 15:07 UTC14%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC14%
18 Sept, 02:12 UTC16%
18 Sept, 01:42 UTC14%
18 Sept, 01:29 UTC14%
18 Sept, 00:16 UTC15%
17 Sept, 22:28 UTC14%
17 Sept, 14:57 UTC17%
17 Sept, 14:23 UTC17%
17 Sept, 13:56 UTC16%
17 Sept, 13:29 UTC19%
17 Sept, 09:02 UTC18%
17 Sept, 08:32 UTC19%
17 Sept, 08:05 UTC20%
17 Sept, 07:59 UTC21%
15 Sept, 03:01 UTC23%
14 Sept, 23:16 UTC23%
14 Sept, 19:54 UTC23%
14 Sept, 12:36 UTC24%
14 Sept, 12:11 UTC23%
13 Sept, 18:04 UTC24%
13 Sept, 17:56 UTC23%
13 Sept, 06:46 UTC24%
13 Sept, 02:52 UTC23%
13 Sept, 00:54 UTC23%
12 Sept, 22:05 UTC23%
12 Sept, 18:39 UTC22%

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 11 Sept 2026. News Feed published first, on 11 September at 11:13 UTC.

One prediction market prices this story:

  • Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? — resolved “No” on 9 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Zack Polanski wins the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, while No applies if he loses. Readers often mistake the June 30, 2027 deadline for the election date rather than the final cutoff for determining the winner. The result relies on official Camden Council records, not just news reports.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Polanski faces uphill battle in Starmer’s old seat News Feed ·

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? No 19d ago

    The market favoured No at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

In this story

  • Polanski
  • Starmer
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