Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Implied probability 0%−3
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$55k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves1 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 0% |
| 9 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 22:36 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 2% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 10:23 UTC | 3% |
| 8 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 00:34 UTC | 4% |
| 8 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 3% |
| 7 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 14% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Zack Polanski wins the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, while No applies if he loses. Readers often mistake the June 30, 2027 deadline for the election date rather than the final cutoff for determining the winner. The result relies on official Camden Council records, not just news reports.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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