Greens braced for loss in Keir Starmer’s old seat in London Hot: Odds moved 14 points in 24 hours
Bookmakers have put Labour ahead in Holborn and St Pancras, where Green Party leader Zack Polanski says his party is ready to win.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 10:44 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 4% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 4% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 10:25 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 6% |
| 6 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 5% |
| 6 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 15:42 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 6% |
| 5 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 09:47 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 16:12 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 12% |
| 4 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Oct, 01:05 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 23:47 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 12% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 13% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 6 October at 11:01 UTC; News Feed followed 16h 59m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 7 October at 04:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? — the market puts it at 4%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The Yes outcome occurs if Zack Polanski wins the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, while No applies if he loses. Readers often mistake the June 30, 2027 deadline for the election date rather than the final cutoff for determining the winner. The result relies on official Camden Council records, not just news reports.
- Labour Party — the market puts it at 96%, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The outcome is Yes if the Labour Party wins the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The outcome is No if they do not win. Readers often mistake this for a general election result rather than a specific by-election.
- Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more? — the market puts it at 44%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Labour candidate wins with a margin of at least 15 percentage points over the second-place finisher. The No outcome applies if that margin is less than 15 percent or if another candidate wins. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but the market resolves based on official results published by Camden Council, not just general news reports.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? 4% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Labour Party 96% +10
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more? 44% +14
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Zack Polanski
- Keir Starmer
- Labour
- Greens