Fed's Warsh Discusses Global Economy and AI at IMF Event in Bangkok Hot: Odds moved 62 points in 24 hours

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 16 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 16 October at 06:08 UTC; MarketWatch followed 58 min later. The most recent article, from MarketWatch, appeared on 16 October at 07:07 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), MarketWatch.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2028 — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if Kevin Warsh leaves his role as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about an IMF event for a change in leadership, but only his actual departure from the chairmanship counts.
• Inflation (5+ times) — the market puts it at 8%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 29 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Kevin Warsh says "Inflation" five or more times during his scheduled Fireside Chat with the International Monetary Fund on October 15, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not reach that count in that specific event. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the source of truth, but only the actual speech at the IMF event counts.
• Credit — the market puts it at 60%, closing 29 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if the Chair of the Federal Reserve uses the word "Credit" during the introductory remarks or question-and-answer session at the post-FOMC meeting in October 2026. The outcome is No if he does not use that specific word in those segments. Readers often mistake any mention of credit elsewhere for a win, but only the exact term spoken at that specific event counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.