Europe moves on as US democracy faces long recovery from Trump era

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 3 November at 18:07 UTC; News Feed followed 41h 40m later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 6 November at 09:39 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• During Trump's term — the market puts it at 15%, with $53 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the United States government takes control of any part of the Panama Canal before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about tariffs for the relevant event, but only actual control of the canal counts.
• Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — the market puts it at 1%, with $45k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election and No otherwise. It relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race for the same candidate. If these sources do not agree by January 20, 2029, the outcome depends on who is inaugurated.
• Below 7.60 — the market puts it at 84%, closing 17 May 2029. The outcome is Yes if the United States scores below 7.60 on the Economist's Democracy Index in any year from 2025 through 2028. The outcome is No if the score stays at 7.60 or higher for every year in that period. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the index must drop below the threshold only once, rather than checking each year individually.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.