Below 7.60
Implied probability 84%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$19k
Resolves17 May 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 84% |
| 4 Nov, 17:34 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 85% |
| 2 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 87% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the United States scores below 7.60 on the Economist's Democracy Index in any year from 2025 through 2028. The outcome is No if the score stays at 7.60 or higher for every year in that period. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the index must drop below the threshold only once, rather than checking each year individually.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 84%
- No 16%