Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward War Amid Tensions in Tigray Region

Tensions escalate as Ethiopian forces advance in Tigray while the US urges de-escalation amid allegations of Eritrean troop movements.

16 publishers · 130 articles · first seen 21 Sept 2026 · updated 17d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 50 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	17%
20 Oct, 06:02 UTC	17%
12 Oct, 12:24 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 23:17 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 22:40 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 22:08 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 14:42 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 13:51 UTC	34%
11 Oct, 09:40 UTC	34%
11 Oct, 08:25 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 06:56 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 06:01 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 05:55 UTC	34%
11 Oct, 02:30 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 00:39 UTC	33%
11 Oct, 00:26 UTC	32%
10 Oct, 23:36 UTC	36%
10 Oct, 23:24 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 21:12 UTC	38%
10 Oct, 20:41 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 20:28 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 19:30 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 19:24 UTC	38%
10 Oct, 18:14 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 17:55 UTC	37%
10 Oct, 16:48 UTC	36%
10 Oct, 15:41 UTC	36%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC	38%
10 Oct, 13:21 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 12:54 UTC	42%
10 Oct, 12:27 UTC	42%
10 Oct, 10:51 UTC	45%
10 Oct, 08:11 UTC	43%
10 Oct, 07:57 UTC	42%
10 Oct, 03:47 UTC	40%
10 Oct, 02:19 UTC	39%
10 Oct, 01:53 UTC	39%
10 Oct, 00:46 UTC	39%
9 Oct, 23:52 UTC	40%
9 Oct, 23:25 UTC	40%
9 Oct, 22:58 UTC	40%
9 Oct, 21:09 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 20:55 UTC	39%
9 Oct, 20:05 UTC	41%
9 Oct, 19:44 UTC	42%
9 Oct, 19:17 UTC	43%
9 Oct, 18:00 UTC	50%
9 Oct, 17:46 UTC	49%
9 Oct, 17:18 UTC	48%
9 Oct, 16:44 UTC	45%
9 Oct, 13:44 UTC	61%
9 Oct, 10:01 UTC	62%
9 Oct, 09:41 UTC	62%
8 Oct, 20:19 UTC	63%
8 Oct, 19:24 UTC	64%
8 Oct, 17:42 UTC	63%
8 Oct, 16:22 UTC	61%
8 Oct, 15:46 UTC	61%
8 Oct, 15:13 UTC	61%
8 Oct, 14:44 UTC	59%
8 Oct, 13:59 UTC	60%
8 Oct, 13:23 UTC	61%
8 Oct, 12:38 UTC	61%
8 Oct, 12:09 UTC	63%
8 Oct, 11:46 UTC	64%
8 Oct, 11:18 UTC	74%
30 Sept, 19:24 UTC	26%
30 Sept, 17:59 UTC	26%
30 Sept, 17:28 UTC	27%
30 Sept, 16:59 UTC	26%
30 Sept, 16:26 UTC	26%
30 Sept, 15:39 UTC	26%
30 Sept, 15:23 UTC	25%
30 Sept, 13:00 UTC	24%
30 Sept, 12:53 UTC	22%
30 Sept, 12:16 UTC	24%
30 Sept, 11:54 UTC	23%
30 Sept, 11:18 UTC	23%
30 Sept, 10:29 UTC	22%
30 Sept, 09:52 UTC	22%
30 Sept, 09:25 UTC	25%
30 Sept, 08:57 UTC	24%
30 Sept, 08:13 UTC	23%
30 Sept, 07:58 UTC	21%
30 Sept, 07:29 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 06:48 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 06:20 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 05:24 UTC	19%
30 Sept, 04:55 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 04:27 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 03:56 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 03:06 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 02:59 UTC	19%
30 Sept, 02:28 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 01:37 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 01:16 UTC	19%
30 Sept, 00:32 UTC	20%
30 Sept, 00:18 UTC	20%
29 Sept, 23:54 UTC	20%
29 Sept, 23:23 UTC	19%
29 Sept, 22:53 UTC	22%
29 Sept, 22:02 UTC	22%
29 Sept, 21:54 UTC	21%
29 Sept, 20:49 UTC	19%
29 Sept, 20:26 UTC	17%
29 Sept, 19:54 UTC	15%
29 Sept, 19:25 UTC	16%
29 Sept, 18:54 UTC	16%
29 Sept, 18:13 UTC	18%
29 Sept, 17:57 UTC	19%
29 Sept, 17:25 UTC	20%
29 Sept, 16:39 UTC	20%
29 Sept, 16:15 UTC	17%
29 Sept, 15:16 UTC	23%
29 Sept, 14:53 UTC	23%
29 Sept, 14:15 UTC	22%
29 Sept, 13:58 UTC	22%
29 Sept, 13:27 UTC	22%
29 Sept, 12:48 UTC	18%
29 Sept, 12:26 UTC	17%
29 Sept, 11:56 UTC	14%

The story so far

16 publishers have covered this in 130 articles since 21 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 21 September at 00:34 UTC; ABC News followed 13h 12m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 19 October at 15:07 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), businessinsider.com, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Deutsche Welle, Sky News and 4 more, all listed under Sources below.

2 prediction markets price this story:

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? — the market puts it at 17%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome requires Eritrean military forces to enter Ethiopia and establish control over territory by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this entry and control do not happen within that timeframe or if the operation lasts less than 48 hours.
Ethiopia — the market puts it at 11%, with $92 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if an official report confirms a human Ebola case in Ethiopia between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if no such confirmed case occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the start date for the resolution deadline.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

21 Sept, 00:34Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian armed groups forge alliance against government—
21 Sept, 13:46ABC News Ethiopian opposition groups unite to mount challenge to prime minister Abiy—
21 Sept, 19:11businessinsider.com Former battlefield enemies unite seven armed groups in bid to overthrow Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed—
21 Sept, 21:16Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia's main armed groups form anti-government alliance—
22 Sept, 13:29France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopian armed groups announce anti-government alliance—
22 Sept, 18:51Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Is Ethiopia heading towards renewed civil war?—
23 Sept, 14:38Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Can Ethiopia’s seven-group rebel alliance challenge Abiy Ahmed?—
23 Sept, 16:13Deutsche Welle Ethiopia: Where does the Tigray conflict go from here?—
23 Sept, 17:10Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia faces renewed war as armed groups launch offensive—
23 Sept, 17:38Deutsche Welle New fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region raises fears of a return to the country's civil war—
Show 120 later sources
1. 23 Sept, 20:37Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia warns of ‘destruction’ as Tigray rebels launch offensive—
2. 24 Sept, 04:23NPR World Fears of return to war grow in Ethiopia's Tigray region—
3. 24 Sept, 09:32News Feed Ethiopia on the brink of civil war after rebel offensive—
4. 24 Sept, 10:42ABC News Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia effectively shatters peace deal that ended 2022 war—
5. 24 Sept, 12:05France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia's Tigray rebels in 'full-blown' war with govt—
6. 24 Sept, 12:25Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Fighting widens across Ethiopia as Tigray clashes escalate—
7. 24 Sept, 13:21Sky News UK condemns Tigray attacks in Ethiopia - four years after civil war—
8. 24 Sept, 13:59Deutsche Welle How the Tigray war could spill across the Horn of Africa—
9. 24 Sept, 13:59Deutsche Welle How renewed fighting in Tigray could spread across the Horn of Africa—
10. 24 Sept, 14:18Bloomberg Markets Fighting Spreads in Ethiopia as Risk of Renewed Conflict Rises—
11. 24 Sept, 18:19Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian army says 272 Tigrayan fighters killed in Amhara—
12. 24 Sept, 18:37Deutsche Welle Ethiopia's military says it killed hundreds of TPLF rebels—
13. 24 Sept, 19:34Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera What’s triggered the latest violence in Ethiopia?—
14. 24 Sept, 20:23Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Tigray rebels in 'full-blown' war with government—
15. 25 Sept, 03:45Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Young men flee Tigray amid fears of forced recruitment—
16. 25 Sept, 11:12Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia: renewed Tigray fighting raises fears of return to civil war—
17. 25 Sept, 11:13Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia: Tigray rebels claim "full-blown war"—
18. 25 Sept, 11:15Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia: what's driving the renewed violence in Tigray?—
19. 25 Sept, 12:08Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Fighting erupts between Tigray’s rebel alliance and Ethiopia’s military—
20. 25 Sept, 12:30Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Fighting in northern Ethiopia spurs fears of blackout and blockade—
21. 25 Sept, 13:00Bloomberg.com Next Africa: New Battle Lines Drawn in Ethiopia as Tigray Flares Up—
22. 25 Sept, 13:34Deutsche Welle Why Eritrea matters as fighting returns to Tigray—
23. 25 Sept, 13:34Deutsche Welle Why Eritrea matters as fighting returns to Ethiopia's Tigray—
24. 25 Sept, 16:10Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia’s new rebel alliance faces an old problem—
25. 25 Sept, 17:11ABC News Ethiopia risks a wider war. Here are 5 things to know—
26. 25 Sept, 20:32France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Telecoms disruption raises fears as heavy fighting strikes Ethiopia—
27. 26 Sept, 09:26France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Heavy fighting on multiple fronts between Ethiopian forces and rebel groups—
28. 26 Sept, 14:00Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray?—
29. 27 Sept, 04:59Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia’s army promises restraint amid fears of new civil war—
30. 27 Sept, 20:44Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian army reportedly recaptures strategic town as fighting spreads—
31. 27 Sept, 23:27Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan of backing Tigray rebels amid clashes—
32. 28 Sept, 09:44Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Al Jazeera reports from near front line in Ethiopia’s Afar region—
33. 28 Sept, 11:00Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia accuses Sudan, Egypt of backing Tigray rebels as fighting rages—
34. 28 Sept, 11:40Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Fighting between rival forces in Somalia’s Baidoa—
35. 28 Sept, 16:39ABC News Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting Tigray rebels—
36. 28 Sept, 16:51France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Tigray TV station hit by drone as rebels advance in north Ethiopia—
37. 28 Sept, 20:32Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopian forces claim Tigray town—
38. 29 Sept, 04:37Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian army claims to have taken Tigrayan stronghold—
39. 29 Sept, 08:19Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Fighting in Ethiopia intensifies: What’s the latest?—
40. 29 Sept, 11:30France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopian army clashes with rebel alliance across multiple fronts—
41. 29 Sept, 16:14Deutsche Welle Ethiopia: Fighting continues in Tigray with no regard for civilians23%
42. 29 Sept, 16:14Deutsche Welle Ethiopia: No regard for civilians as fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region continues23%
43. 29 Sept, 16:14Deutsche Welle Ethiopia: No regard for civilians as fighting in Tigray continues23%
44. 29 Sept, 17:25Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia blames regional rivals as risk of conflict spillover rises20%▼3 points since the previous source
45. 30 Sept, 19:04Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia back to civil war? Horn of Africa fears spillover effect of renewed fighting26%▲6 points since the previous source
46. 1 Oct, 13:25Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Blasts heard in Addis Ababa as Ethiopia conflict widens in the north26%▼1 points since the previous source
47. 1 Oct, 16:02Deutsche Welle Ethiopia: Who could bring the warring sides to the negotiation table?26%
48. 2 Oct, 05:52Deutsche Welle The Sudan connection: Is Ethiopia at risk of a proxy war?26%
49. 2 Oct, 07:17Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera How the fighting in Ethiopia spread beyond Tigray, in maps and charts26%
50. 2 Oct, 12:27Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian gov’t-aligned group claims close to full control of Tigray region26%
51. 2 Oct, 13:53Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia, Eritrea break ties: Does the conflict risk becoming regional war?26%
52. 2 Oct, 14:22Deutsche Welle Growing fear of war in the Horn of Africa after Eritrea cuts ties with Ethiopia26%
53. 2 Oct, 20:17Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Could conflict in Ethiopia expand across the region?26%
54. 2 Oct, 20:46Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopian army pushes back Tigrayan rebels26%
55. 3 Oct, 07:58France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia's Tigray rebels abandon regional capital as govt advances: journalist26%
56. 3 Oct, 07:58France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia's Tigray rebels abandon regional capital of Mekelle as pro-government forces advance26%
57. 3 Oct, 11:16Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia’s government forces retake airport from Tigray rebels in Mekelle26%
58. 3 Oct, 11:54Hacker News The Escalation of War in Ethiopia26%
59. 3 Oct, 13:00Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian gov’t forces advance in Tigray as rebels retreat: What to know26%
60. 3 Oct, 19:46ABC News Ethiopian federal forces retake Mekelle airport from Tigrayan fighters, residents say26%
61. 4 Oct, 01:41Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian government troops seize Tigray’s capital Mekelle26%
62. 4 Oct, 03:48Deutsche Welle In Tigray, Ethiopian government forces have advanced against a northern rebel group, reports indicate26%
63. 4 Oct, 07:47Bloomberg Markets Ethiopia Recaptures Tigray Airport as Northern Rebels Retreat26%
64. 4 Oct, 08:56Sky News Opposition fighters withdraw from capital of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region26%
65. 4 Oct, 10:22France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia controls Tigray capital as regional rivals meet in Egypt26%
66. 4 Oct, 10:22France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopian federal forces control Tigray capital as regional rivals meet in Egypt26%
67. 4 Oct, 11:05Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian government forces seize Tigray capital Mekelle as TPLF withdraws26%
68. 4 Oct, 12:04ABC News Opposition fighters in northern Ethiopia's Tigray withdraw from regional capital26%
69. 5 Oct, 00:33Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Four African leaders issue joint declaration as Ethiopia war escalates26%
70. 5 Oct, 01:03Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia’s forces retake Mekelle amid renewed Tigray fighting26%
71. 5 Oct, 06:44businessinsider.com Ethiopian forces reportedly retake Mekelle airport after rebels seized three northern air gateways26%
72. 5 Oct, 06:56businessinsider.com Ethiopia retakes Tigray’s capital as rebel leaders withdraw and vow to fight on26%
73. 5 Oct, 12:57France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopian govt retakes Tigray capital as rebels pull out26%
74. 5 Oct, 15:36News Feed Ethiopian government seizes Tigray capital in blow to rebels26%
75. 5 Oct, 23:38Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera What’s happening in Ethiopia?26%
76. 6 Oct, 05:00The Guardian Tigray rebel groups ‘forcibly recruiting boys as young as 15’ as fighting spreads26%
77. 6 Oct, 12:29France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Tigray students relocated by conflict say fled forced conscription26%
78. 6 Oct, 13:32Deutsche Welle Tigray war may spill over to Eritrea — helped by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rhetoric26%
79. 6 Oct, 14:11France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia 'fears Tigray conflict could get out of control'26%
80. 7 Oct, 18:40BBC News Eritrean troops move deep into Ethiopia's Tigray region, residents tell BBC26%
81. 7 Oct, 18:43Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Witnesses spot Eritrean troops inside northern Ethiopia as tensions flare26%
82. 8 Oct, 00:25africa.businessinsider.com East Africa’s strongest military nation may be faced with an invasion from its neighbour as it faces rising security threats26%
83. 8 Oct, 07:43ABC News Eritrean soldiers entered northern Ethiopian towns, government-allied commander says26%
84. 8 Oct, 10:30France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Eritrean troops reportedly enter Ethiopia’s Tigray region26%
85. 8 Oct, 13:01The Economist Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the brink of another conflict61%▲36 points since the previous source
86. 8 Oct, 16:11The Guardian Ethiopia launches drone attack against Eritrean troops who crossed into Tigray61%
87. 9 Oct, 00:08Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Will Ethiopia’s neighbours intervene as Tigray war escalates?63%▲2 points since the previous source
88. 9 Oct, 10:00businessinsider.com Ethiopian drones reportedly strike Eritrean military vehicles as border incursion deepens confrontation62%▼1 points since the previous source
89. 9 Oct, 11:36France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Eritrea and Ethiopia accuse each other of provoking war as Tigray rebels retreat62%▼1 points since the previous source
90. 9 Oct, 13:01Bloomberg.com Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Risk a New Horn of Africa Corridor of War62%
91. 9 Oct, 13:31BBC News Ethiopia warns Eritrea it will defend itself after troops cross border62%
92. 9 Oct, 14:11Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia and Eritrea accuse one another of launching war61%▼1 points since the previous source
93. 9 Oct, 15:20Deutsche Welle Eritrean troops in Ethiopia raise fears of a regional war61%
94. 10 Oct, 07:41ABC News Ethiopia tells UN it is acting in self-defense against Eritrea40%▼21 points since the previous source
95. 10 Oct, 16:41Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Eritrea urges UN to intervene in standoff with Ethiopia36%▼3 points since the previous source
96. 10 Oct, 16:54Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Celebrations in Ethiopian city after reported Eritrean ‘incursion’36%▼1 points since the previous source
97. 10 Oct, 18:32Deutsche Welle Eritrea urges UN deterrence measures against Ethiopia37%▲1 points since the previous source
98. 11 Oct, 14:09Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia, Eritrea ramp up rhetoric: Are they inching towards war?34%▼3 points since the previous source
99. 11 Oct, 14:46ABC News Ethiopian official promises change in Tigray after troops retake regional capital33%▼1 points since the previous source
100. 12 Oct, 04:00Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian troops enter Adigrat in Tigray, near the Eritrean border33%▼1 points since the previous source
101. 12 Oct, 20:34Breaking news from AFRICA, Maghreb and Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopian govt forces enter key Tigray town near Eritrea border32%
102. 13 Oct, 01:46Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia’s Tigray war: Where do the UAE and Saudi Arabia stand?32%
103. 13 Oct, 10:00France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia: Social media becomes a battleground for propaganda32%
104. 13 Oct, 15:13France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopian forces enter key Tigray town, raising fears among residents32%
105. 14 Oct, 04:01The New York Times From Allies to Enemies: Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward War32%
106. 14 Oct, 08:30businessinsider.com Fear of a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, 28 years after their last, has been ignited as armies from both sides get uncomfortably close to each other32%
107. 14 Oct, 14:25Deutsche Welle Climate change and drone attacks exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in war-torn Sudan32%
108. 14 Oct, 14:39Fox News World African nations on ‘knife’s edge’ as US embassy warns Americans of long-range attacks32%
109. 15 Oct, 11:33ABC News Rubio urges restraint over Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, civilians killed32%
110. 15 Oct, 18:41Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopian forces expand control in Tigray as militia claims Eritrean losses32%
111. 16 Oct, 13:05France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Ethiopia announces interim government in Tigray, aims for polls in six months32%
112. 16 Oct, 13:54Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Ethiopia announces instalment of interim government in Tigray32%
113. 16 Oct, 16:19Deutsche Welle Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed appoints interim Tigray government32%
114. 16 Oct, 19:18Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Can diplomacy resolve longstanding Ethiopia-Eritrea differences?32%
115. 18 Oct, 17:20Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Residents recount drone strikes in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region32%
116. 19 Oct, 07:31businessinsider.com US reveals why it eased sanctions on Eritrean targets as Ethiopia, Eritrea deploy more troops and risk drawing other countries into war32%
117. 19 Oct, 13:21Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ‘Weight of responsibility’: Promise and perils of covering Ethiopia’s war32%
118. 19 Oct, 14:10Fortune Ethiopia’s prime minister won a Nobel Peace Prize for making peace with Eritrea. Now the former allies could go to war32%
119. 19 Oct, 15:02Deutsche Welle Can diplomacy prevent an Ethiopia-Eritrea war as Tigray gets a new administration?32%
120. 19 Oct, 15:07Deutsche Welle Can diplomacy stop another Ethiopia-Eritrea war?32%
NowCurrent odds17%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 124 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Polymarket Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? 17% ends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Kalshi Ethiopia 11% $92 24hends 1 Jan 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

In this story

Ethiopia
Eritrea
Tigray
Abiy Ahmed
Marco Rubio

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

<iframe src="https://newsmarkets.org/embed/story/ethiopian-armed-groups-forge-alliance-against-government-22248" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0;max-width:640px" loading="lazy" title="Ethiopia and Eritrea Edge Toward War Amid Tensions in Tigray Region · NewsMarkets"></iframe>