Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?
Implied probability 17%
Total volume$59k
Liquidity$22k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome requires Eritrean military forces to enter Ethiopia and establish control over territory by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this entry and control do not happen within that timeframe or if the operation lasts less than 48 hours.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 84%
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