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Elsinore leads British Independent Film Awards nominations with 12 nods

The drama starring Andrew Scott tops the list ahead of the ceremony, while Clio Barnard and Mike Leigh also receive recognition.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 3 Nov 2026 · updated 1h ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

The odds

How the odds moved · Elsinore
0%50%100%32%27 Oct, 22:44 UTCnowThe Guardian: Andrew Scott drama Elsinore leads British independent film award nominations · 3 Nov, 12:49 UTCDeadline: British Independent Film Awards: ‘Elsinore’ Leads Nominations · 3 Nov, 10:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now32%
3 Nov, 05:04 UTC31%
2 Nov, 23:01 UTC33%
2 Nov, 11:57 UTC30%
1 Nov, 18:18 UTC35%
1 Nov, 14:37 UTC34%
27 Oct, 22:44 UTC32%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 3 Nov 2026. Deadline published first, on 3 November at 10:00 UTC; The Guardian followed 2h 50m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian, appeared on 3 November at 12:49 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), Deadline.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Elsinore — the market puts it at 32%, with $102 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release date or festival premiere for the official nomination announcement.
  • Elsinore — the market puts it at 1%, with $491 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore wins the Best Picture award at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other nominations or wins for this outcome, but only a Best Picture victory counts.
  • Elsinore — the market puts it at 2%, closing 10 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore wins the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about British Independent Film Awards nominations as relevant, but only the specific Golden Globe win counts.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Andrew Scott drama Elsinore leads British independent film award nominations The Guardian ·
  2. British Independent Film Awards: ‘Elsinore’ Leads Nominations Deadline

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Elsinore 32% +2 $102 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Elsinore 1% $491 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Elsinore 2% $0 24hends 10 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Andrew Scott
  • Elsinore
  • Simon Stone
  • British Independent Film Awards
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