Elon Musk Becomes Largest Single-Cycle Political Donor in US History With $446m
The tech mogul donated at least $445.77m to Republican-aligned groups, surpassing all previous records for a single election cycle.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 03:24 UTC | 59% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 65% |
| 30 Oct, 21:38 UTC | 66% |
| 30 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 63% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 58% |
| 30 Oct, 18:10 UTC | 66% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Oct, 13:13 UTC | 66% |
| 30 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Oct, 13:15 UTC | 65% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 61% |
| 28 Oct, 23:33 UTC | 65% |
| 28 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 60% |
| 28 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 64% |
| 27 Oct, 15:12 UTC | 63% |
| 26 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 63% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 31 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 31 October at 10:00 UTC; Times of India followed 5h 09m later. The most recent article, from Times of India, appeared on 31 October at 15:10 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 66%, with $23 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
- More than $1.4 trillion — the market puts it at 11%, with $392 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk’s net worth exceeds $1.4 trillion before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if his net worth does not reach that amount by that date. Readers often mistake the source of truth for net worth calculations or the specific deadline.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 75%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk ranks among the three wealthiest people globally on December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not meet this wealth threshold on that specific date. Readers often mistake the release of a documentary or other news events for the resolution criteria, but only his net worth ranking on the deadline matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Above $800 billion 66% +8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi More than $1.4 trillion 11%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elon Musk 75%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls