Destruction in South Lebanon Makes Displacement Permanent for Residents
Destroyed homes and lost livelihoods force displaced Lebanese into an entrenched reality with little security.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Sept, 13:12 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 15:28 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 13:43 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 09:47 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 08:57 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 08:23 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 07:53 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 06:58 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 05:59 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 04:26 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Sept, 00:15 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 16:55 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 16:24 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 14:13 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 12:46 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 12:01 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 11:49 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 11:05 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 10:33 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 10:21 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Sept, 21:31 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 0% |
| 17 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Sept, 15:34 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Sept, 04:58 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Sept, 01:12 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Sept, 00:56 UTC | 1% |
| 15 Sept, 00:21 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 22:36 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 19:02 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 18:01 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 17:53 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Sept, 13:34 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Sept, 14:14 UTC | 1% |
| 13 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 1% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 13 September at 13:09 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. For the Yes outcome to occur, Israel must announce that its ground forces have left all Lebanese territory by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. This announcement is sufficient even if some Lebanese land remains under Israeli control or incursions continue, and planned future withdrawals do not count. Readers often mistake the Shebaa Farms area as part of Lebanon for this market, but it counts as Israeli territory.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No 27d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Israel
- Lebanon