Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 1%
Total volume$270k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
For the Yes outcome to occur, Israel must announce that its ground forces have left all Lebanese territory by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. This announcement is sufficient even if some Lebanese land remains under Israeli control or incursions continue, and planned future withdrawals do not count. Readers often mistake the Shebaa Farms area as part of Lebanon for this market, but it counts as Israeli territory.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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