Democratic Upset Brewing in Alaska Governor's Race as Trump Popularity Craters

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 2 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 2 October at 16:00 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 54% — the market puts it at 1%, with $747 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins receives at least 54% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 54%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the certified percentage from the official results.
• Republican party — the market puts it at 84%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Republicans win control of the Alaska State Senate in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they do not. Readers often mistake the linked story about the governor's race for the relevant event, but only the state senate results matter.
• Democratic party — the market puts it at 77%, with $128 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if a Democrat wins and takes office as Alaska's governor after the 2026 election. The outcome is No if any other candidate holds that position. Readers often mistake current polling or campaign news for the final result, but only the official inauguration determines the resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.