Conservative Lawyer Quits Interior Dept, Citing Assault on Rule of Law
John Murdock resigns from the Department of the Interior after 18 years, warning of an assault on the rule of law under Donald Trump.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 65% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 6 October at 13:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Jan 2027 — the market puts it at 64%, closing 2 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their current role or announces they will leave before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the specific news story about a lawyer quitting for the trigger, but only Cabinet members count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Before Jan 2027 64%
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In this story
- John Murdock
- Donald Trump
- Department of the Interior