Carville Doubles Down on Prediction Trump Will Quit by Easter

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 22 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 22 October at 20:02 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before his term ends — the market puts it at 24%, with $609 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. President elected for the 2025–2029 term resigns from office before their term ends. It resolves to No if they do not resign within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a call for resignation as the triggering event, but only an actual resignation counts.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 4%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he remains in office on or after that date. Readers often mistake the linked Supreme Court case for the deciding factor, but only his actual departure from office matters.
• Before his term ends — the market puts it at 20%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if the U.S. President is impeached by the House of Representatives and convicted by the Senate before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about firing aides for the actual impeachment process.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.