Blue Origin Delays New Glenn Launch to January 2027 After Pad Explosion
CEO Dave Limp confirms repairs following a May explosion will push the next New Glenn rocket flight to January 2027.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News Feed, 4h 11m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 72% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 72% |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 67% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 73% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 72% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 72% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 70% |
| 1 Nov, 22:39 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 69% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 14:09 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Nov, 06:22 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 67% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 67% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 66% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before 2030 respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 5 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 5 November at 16:35 UTC; The Verge followed 4h 12m later. The most recent article, from Engadget, appeared on 5 November at 22:10 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Quartz, Engadget.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before 2030 — the market puts it at 72%, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. Yes resolves if Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship and before January 1, 2030. No resolves if that specific sequence of events does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for any lunar landing by Blue Origin, ignoring the strict condition that it must happen before SpaceX's uncrewed Starship landing.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? — the market puts it at 96%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX Starship Flight 15 successfully lifts off from its pad by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends solely on the launch event itself; any explosion or anomaly after liftoff does not change the result. Readers often mistakenly believe that a post-launch failure counts as a No, but only the successful launch matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2030 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News FeedBlue Origin delays launches until 202769%
- The VergeBlue Origin’s next launch now won’t happen until 202772%▲3 points since the previous source
- QuartzBlue Origin is pushing its New Glenn rocket's return to flight to January 202772%
- EngadgetBlue Origin's New Glenn launch delay will continue into 202772%
- Current odds72%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before 2030 72% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? 96% +6
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Blue Origin
- Dave Limp
- New Glenn
- SpaceX