NewsMarkets

Tech

Blue Origin Delays New Glenn Launch to January 2027 After Pad Explosion

CEO Dave Limp confirms repairs following a May explosion will push the next New Glenn rocket flight to January 2027.

4 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 5 Nov 2026 · updated 45m ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by News Feed, 4h 11m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

The odds

How the odds moved · Before 2030
0%50%100%72%30 Oct, 06:14 UTCnowThe Verge: Blue Origin’s next launch now won’t happen until 2027 · 5 Nov, 20:47 UTCNews Feed: Blue Origin delays launches until 2027 · 5 Nov, 16:35 UTCEngadget: Blue Origin's New Glenn launch delay will continue into 2027 · 5 Nov, 22:10 UTCQuartz: Blue Origin is pushing its New Glenn rocket's return to flight to January 2027 · 5 Nov, 21:11 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now72%
5 Nov, 19:29 UTC72%
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC69%
4 Nov, 20:23 UTC68%
4 Nov, 17:49 UTC67%
4 Nov, 06:43 UTC73%
4 Nov, 00:22 UTC72%
3 Nov, 20:27 UTC67%
2 Nov, 17:56 UTC72%
2 Nov, 00:33 UTC70%
1 Nov, 22:39 UTC73%
1 Nov, 20:57 UTC69%
1 Nov, 18:40 UTC66%
1 Nov, 14:09 UTC73%
1 Nov, 06:22 UTC72%
1 Nov, 03:19 UTC66%
1 Nov, 02:29 UTC68%
1 Nov, 00:07 UTC72%
31 Oct, 22:21 UTC67%
31 Oct, 20:43 UTC68%
30 Oct, 20:37 UTC67%
30 Oct, 06:14 UTC66%

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 5 Nov 2026. News Feed published first, on 5 November at 16:35 UTC; The Verge followed 4h 12m later. The most recent article, from Engadget, appeared on 5 November at 22:10 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Quartz, Engadget.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Before 2030 — the market puts it at 72%, with $37 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. Yes resolves if Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship and before January 1, 2030. No resolves if that specific sequence of events does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for any lunar landing by Blue Origin, ignoring the strict condition that it must happen before SpaceX's uncrewed Starship landing.
  • Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? — the market puts it at 96%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX Starship Flight 15 successfully lifts off from its pad by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends solely on the launch event itself; any explosion or anomaly after liftoff does not change the result. Readers often mistakenly believe that a post-launch failure counts as a No, but only the successful launch matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2030 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. News FeedBlue Origin delays launches until 202769%
  2. The VergeBlue Origin’s next launch now won’t happen until 202772%▲3 points since the previous source
  3. QuartzBlue Origin is pushing its New Glenn rocket's return to flight to January 202772%
  4. EngadgetBlue Origin's New Glenn launch delay will continue into 202772%
  5. Current odds72%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Blue Origin’s next launch now won’t happen until 2027 The Verge ·
  2. Blue Origin delays launches until 2027 News Feed ·
  3. Blue Origin's New Glenn launch delay will continue into 2027 Engadget
  4. Blue Origin is pushing its New Glenn rocket's return to flight to January 2027 Quartz

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Before 2030 72% +4 $37 24hends 1 Jan 2030

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? 96% +6 $3k 24hends 1 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

  • Blue Origin
  • Dave Limp
  • New Glenn
  • SpaceX
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.