Before 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 58% |
| 15 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 58% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Yes resolves if Blue Origin lands an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship and before January 1, 2030. No resolves if that specific sequence of events does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for any lunar landing by Blue Origin, ignoring the strict condition that it must happen before SpaceX's uncrewed Starship landing.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 58%
- No 42%