Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?
Why it moved: +7 points at 22:32 UTC, after Engadget: Blue Origin's New Glenn launch delay will continue into 2027 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 89% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX Starship Flight 15 successfully lifts off from its pad by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome depends solely on the launch event itself; any explosion or anomaly after liftoff does not change the result. Readers often mistakenly believe that a post-launch failure counts as a No, but only the successful launch matters.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%
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