Baltic Nations Train Civilians to Defend Against Russian Invasion
Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are preparing civilians for potential attacks as they brace for Russia's next target amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
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The odds
All 2 sources published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 22:44 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 11:11 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 09:11 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 08:57 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 06:20 UTC | 8% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 05:08 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 21:34 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Sept, 01:33 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 21:09 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 20:13 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 00:47 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 19:42 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 9% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 8% |
| 22 Sept, 05:42 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 14:00 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Sept, 10:45 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 7% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 7% |
| 14 Sept, 17:08 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Sept, 13:34 UTC | 6% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 8 Sept 2026. CBS News published first, on 8 September at 12:58 UTC. The most recent article, from CBS News, appeared on 8 September at 13:06 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026? — the market puts it at 8%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. Russia must start a military offensive to control part of a UN member state's territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends on credible reporting consensus regarding actions outside Ukraine. Readers often mistake the deadline or assume any Russian military activity counts, but only new offensives against other UN members matter.
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026.
- Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Russia invade another country in 2026? 8%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? No 27d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 27d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lithuania
- Estonia
- Latvia
- Russia
- Putin