Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 09:07 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 6% |
| 21 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Russia must start a military offensive to control part of a UN member state's territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends on credible reporting consensus regarding actions outside Ukraine. Readers often mistake the deadline or assume any Russian military activity counts, but only new offensives against other UN members matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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