Arizona Rep. Eli Crane Defeats Democrat Jonathan Nez in House Race
Republican Eli Crane has been projected to win reelection in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, defeating Democrat Jonathan Nez for the second consecutive term.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 00:16 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | 30% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 10 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 10 November at 00:41 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Crane, 4+ pts — the market puts it at 2%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party wins Arizona's 2nd District race by a margin of at least 4 percentage points. It resolves to No if the winner loses by less than that margin or if the Democrat wins. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any early poll leads count instead of only the official certified election results.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
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- Kalshi Crane, 4+ pts · Arizona's 2nd District margin of victory 2%
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In this story
- Eli Crane
- Jonathan Nez
- Decision Desk HQ