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Alex Gibney's New Documentary 'Musk' Offers Unflattering Portrait of Tech Mogul

Director Alex Gibney discusses his new film about Elon Musk, describing the tech mogul as a bullshitter amidst threats of legal action.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 1 Oct 2026 · updated 1h ago

The odds

How the odds moved · Elon Musk
0%50%100%99%29 Sept, 05:53 UTCnowRoll Call: Alex Gibney and the odyssey of ‘Musk’ · 2 Oct, 13:47 UTCDeadline: ‘Musk’ Director Alex Gibney On World’s Richest Man: “He’s A Bullsh*tter” · 1 Oct, 20:38 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC99%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. Deadline published first, on 1 October at 20:38 UTC; Roll Call followed 17h 09m later. The most recent article, from Roll Call, appeared on 2 October at 13:47 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Deadline, Roll Call.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Elon Musk — the market puts it at 99%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk ranks among the three wealthiest people globally on December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not meet this wealth threshold on that specific date. Readers often mistake the release of a documentary or other news events for the resolution criteria, but only his net worth ranking on the deadline matters.
  • Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 62%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
  • Musk — the market puts it at 18%, with $481 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk is officially nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not receive a nomination by the time the Academy announces its official list. Readers often mistake the release of Alex Gibney's documentary as sufficient, but only an Oscar nomination counts toward resolution.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Alex Gibney and the odyssey of ‘Musk’ Roll Call
  2. ‘Musk’ Director Alex Gibney On World’s Richest Man: “He’s A Bullsh*tter” Deadline

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Elon Musk 99% $0 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Above $800 billion 62% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2026

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Musk 18% +1 $481 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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