Musk
Implied probability 18%+1
24-hour volume$481
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves31 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Oct, 13:32 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk is officially nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not receive a nomination by the time the Academy announces its official list. Readers often mistake the release of Alex Gibney's documentary as sufficient, but only an Oscar nomination counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%