Alcaraz wins Japan Open title in comeback from wrist injury
Carlos Alcaraz defeats Jiri Lehecka to claim the Japan Open, marking his first tournament victory since returning from a five-month wrist injury layoff.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 99% |
| 6 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 73% |
| 5 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 66% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 81% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 74% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 71% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 68% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 63% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 62% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 59% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 65% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Carlos Alcaraz respond.
The story so far
4 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 3 Oct 2026. SkySports published first, on 3 October at 14:04 UTC; The Guardian Sport followed 69h 21m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 7 October at 02:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), SkySports, Times of India, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Carlos Alcaraz — resolved “Yes” on 7 Oct 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz — the market puts it at 44%, with $786 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 15 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Carlos Alcaraz wins the 2027 Australian Open Men's Singles title. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific tournament. Readers often mistake the linked Japan Open victory for the required event, but only the 2027 Australian Open result counts.
- Carlos Alcaraz — the market puts it at 99%, closing 15 Nov 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Carlos Alcaraz at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- SkySportsAlcaraz battles to book quarter-finals spot at Japan Open65%
- SkySportsAlcaraz fights back against Munar to book spot in Japan Open final76%▲11 points since the previous source
- The Guardian SportCarlos Alcaraz takes first title since February with victory in Japan Open final73%▼3 points since the previous source
- SkySportsAlcaraz wins Japan Open in first final since wrist injury73%
- Times of IndiaCarlos Alcaraz becomes first player since Pete Sampras to retain Japan Open73%
- Latest articlesAlcaraz wins Japan Open for first title since injury return99%▲26 points since the previous source
- Market resolved: Yes
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Carlos Alcaraz takes first title since February with victory in Japan Open final The Guardian Sport ·
- Alcaraz wins Japan Open for first title since injury return Latest articles
- Carlos Alcaraz becomes first player since Pete Sampras to retain Japan Open Times of India
- Alcaraz wins Japan Open in first final since wrist injury SkySports
- Alcaraz fights back against Munar to book spot in Japan Open final SkySports
- Alcaraz battles to book quarter-finals spot at Japan Open SkySports
Markets on this story
- Resolved Carlos Alcaraz Yes 2h ago
The market favoured Yes at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Carlos Alcaraz 44% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Carlos Alcaraz 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Jiri Lehecka
- Japan Open