2026 Set to Be Second-Hottest Year on Record as El Nino Peaks

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Quartz published first, on 4 November at 20:52 UTC; Times of India followed 37h 36m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 6 November at 12:09 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), Quartz, Times of India.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? — the market puts it at 11%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Mar 2027. The market resolves based on whether 2026 ranks as the second hottest year globally using NASA's unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the final answer, but the outcome depends strictly on the official numerical ranking from NASA's specific dataset, not media reports or preliminary estimates.
• Before 2050 — the market puts it at 66%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2050. The outcome is Yes if global temperatures hit or pass 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels in any single year before January 1, 2050. The outcome is No if that threshold remains unbreached by the deadline. Readers often mistake this for a long-term average rather than a specific annual peak.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.