Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Implied probability 10%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$484k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves2 Mar 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 13:13 UTC | 10% |
| 6 Nov, 10:49 UTC | 11% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on whether 2026 ranks as the second hottest year globally using NASA's unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the final answer, but the outcome depends strictly on the official numerical ranking from NASA's specific dataset, not media reports or preliminary estimates.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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