World No 1 Elena Rybakina loses to Alina Charaeva in first match as top-ranked player
Elena Rybakina has been defeated by 118th-ranked Alina Charaeva in her debut match since ascending to the world number one ranking.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 79% |
| 3 Oct, 05:43 UTC | 79% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 3 Oct 2026. SkySports published first, on 3 October at 15:33 UTC; Latest articles followed 14h 23m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 4 October at 05:56 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: SkySports, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Elena Rybakina — the market puts it at 79%, with $140 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Elena Rybakina holds the top spot on the PIF WTA singles rankings at noon Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a specific match loss for the final ranking determination.
- Elena Rybakina — the market puts it at 97%, closing 8 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Elena Rybakina qualifies for the 2026 WTA Singles Finals. It resolves to No if she does not qualify. Readers often mistake the linked story about her first match loss as the deciding factor, but only her final qualification status matters.
- China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva — resolved “Alina Charaeva” on 4 Oct 2026.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Elena Rybakina 79%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elena Rybakina 97%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva Alina Charaeva 2h ago
The market favoured Elena Rybakina at 96% a day out, but Alina Charaeva won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Elena Rybakina
- Alina Charaeva