US Tries to Break China's Grip on Rare Earths Through MP Materials
MP Materials aims to rebuild the domestic supply chain by refining minerals at its California mine, though it faces significant cost and capacity hurdles.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 17% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 4 October at 12:03 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- By 2030 — the market puts it at 14%, with $28 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if China's gross domestic product exceeds that of the United States by the year 2030. It resolves to No if China's GDP does not surpass the US total within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rare earth processing for the actual resolution criteria, but only GDP figures determine the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi By 2030 14% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- China
- United States
- MP Materials
- Mountain Pass