By 2030
Implied probability 19%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$134k
Liquidity$134k
Resolves1 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 10 Nov, 19:12 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Nov, 04:42 UTC | 20% |
| 9 Nov, 05:56 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if China's gross domestic product exceeds that of the United States by the year 2030. It resolves to No if China's GDP does not surpass the US total within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rare earth processing for the actual resolution criteria, but only GDP figures determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%
Stories on this market
- US Envoy Says Nvidia Affair Proves Need for Vigilance on China tech
- Chinese Firm Moonshot AI Accesses Nvidia Chips Despite US Ban tech
- China’s CATL Targets 2,000 Battery Swapping Stations by 2027 as Toyota Revives Scion for US Kei Trucks business
- China's Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion for Second Year business