By 2030
Implied probability 17%+4
24-hour volume$6
Total volume$130k
Liquidity$130k
Resolves1 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if China's gross domestic product exceeds that of the United States by the year 2030. It resolves to No if China's GDP does not surpass the US total within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rare earth processing for the actual resolution criteria, but only GDP figures determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%