US, Russia and China race to place nuclear reactors on the moon
The nations are competing to deploy lunar nuclear power to support future bases and mining operations despite contamination risks.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 15:08 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 31% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 31% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 30% |
| 21 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 31% |
| 19 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 31% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 31% |
| 11 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 31% |
| 9 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 31% |
| 5 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 30% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 31% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
| 23 Sept, 07:32 UTC | 31% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 31 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 31 October at 05:37 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- China — the market puts it at 31%, with $412 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2031. China must be the first nation to send humans to the Moon before January 1, 2031 for the outcome to be Yes. The deadline is strictly based on the launch date of the mission, not the landing or return. Readers often mistake this market as resolving based on lunar exploration milestones rather than the specific condition of being the first country to achieve a manned moon landing.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi China 31%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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