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US Air Force Colonel Survives Shootdown Over Iran; Iranian Plane Emergency Lands in Mashhad

A US colonel recounts his survival after an F-15E jet was shot down over Iran, while a Sepehran Airlines Boeing 737 makes an emergency landing in Mashhad.

6 publishers · 9 articles · first seen 13 Sept 2026 · updated 40d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

First reported by CBS News Politics, 2h 43m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
0%50%100%0%16 Sept, 03:10 UTCnowJust In News: Pentagon’s count leaves out some deaths in Middle East during Iran war · 18 Sept, 23:31 UTCThe Hill News: Iran: Account of US Air Force colonel’s rescue ‘fictional’ · 17 Sept, 16:32 UTCFox News World: Plane passengers scream in harrowing mid-flight video as violent shaking sends cabin ceiling panels flying · 17 Sept, 02:10 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 6 more published before price tracking began

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The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 9 articles since 13 Sept 2026. CBS News Politics published first, on 13 September at 23:00 UTC; The Hill News followed 2h 44m later. The most recent article, from Just In News, appeared on 18 September at 23:31 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: CBS News Politics (major outlet), Just In News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Times of India, All Content from Business Insider, Fox News World.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Iran full airspace closure by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially suspends commercial aviation across its entire airspace or Tehran FIR before September 30 at 11:59 PM ET, excluding closures caused solely by weather. It resolves to No if the closure is partial, limited to specific regions like the Strait of Hormuz, or driven by restrictions from other countries rather than Iran itself.
  • Iran Nuke before 2027? — the market puts it at 4%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The Yes outcome requires credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or global news sources to officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this confirmation does not occur within the specified timeframe.
  • Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 8 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Iran launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at a listed Arab country before September 30, 2026, regardless of whether the munitions are intercepted. The action must be explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory; attacks by proxy forces do not count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Iran full airspace closure by September 30? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. CBS News Politics9/13/2026: Shot Down Over Iran, The Pardon Economy, Battering Ram—
  2. The Hill NewsAir Force colonel recounts how he survived after F-15E jet was shot down over Iran—
  3. Times of IndiaShot down over Iran, hunted for 50 hrs: How US fighter survived behind enemy lines—
  4. Times of IndiaCIA deception op, over 90 troops: How US rescued 'Alpha & Bravo' from Iran - video—
  5. All Content from Business Insider'Never let a lack of motivation put you on Iranian TV': US airman shares intense Iran survival story after shootdown—
  6. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPanic on board Iranian plane as violent shaking rips cabin apart—
  7. Fox News WorldPlane passengers scream in harrowing mid-flight video as violent shaking sends cabin ceiling panels flying8%
  8. The Hill NewsIran: Account of US Air Force colonel’s rescue ‘fictional’5%▼3 points since the previous source
  9. Just In NewsPentagon’s count leaves out some deaths in Middle East during Iran war5%▲1 points since the previous source
  10. Market resolved: No

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Pentagon’s count leaves out some deaths in Middle East during Iran war Just In News ·
  2. Iran: Account of US Air Force colonel’s rescue ‘fictional’ The Hill News ·
  3. Panic on board Iranian plane as violent shaking rips cabin apart Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  4. Air Force colonel recounts how he survived after F-15E jet was shot down over Iran The Hill News ·
  5. 9/13/2026: Shot Down Over Iran, The Pardon Economy, Battering Ram CBS News Politics ·
  6. Plane passengers scream in harrowing mid-flight video as violent shaking sends cabin ceiling panels flying Fox News World
Show 3 more sources
  1. 'Never let a lack of motivation put you on Iranian TV': US airman shares intense Iran survival story after shootdown All Content from Business Insider
  2. CIA deception op, over 90 troops: How US rescued 'Alpha & Bravo' from Iran - video Times of India
  3. Shot down over Iran, hunted for 50 hrs: How US fighter survived behind enemy lines Times of India

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Resolved Iran full airspace closure by September 30? No 28d ago

    The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Iran Nuke before 2027? 4% $6k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026? Yes 21d ago
    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

In this story

  • Sepehran Airlines
  • U.S. Air Force
  • Iran
  • Mashhad
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