Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?
Implied probability 55%+15
24-hour volume$813
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 55% |
| 18 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 55% |
| 18 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Sept, 21:18 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Sept, 20:59 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 18:22 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 16:25 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 15:58 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 46% |
| 17 Sept, 12:35 UTC | 41% |
| 17 Sept, 12:28 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Sept, 11:42 UTC | 42% |
| 17 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 47% |
| 17 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 50% |
| 17 Sept, 08:19 UTC | 45% |
| 17 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 45% |
| 17 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Sept, 06:37 UTC | 37% |
| 17 Sept, 05:39 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Sept, 05:12 UTC | 36% |
| 17 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 34% |
| 17 Sept, 03:10 UTC | 32% |
| 16 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Sept, 14:22 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 64% |
| 16 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 66% |
| 16 Sept, 09:12 UTC | 64% |
| 16 Sept, 08:28 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Sept, 07:50 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 61% |
| 16 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 62% |
| 16 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 63% |
| 16 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 56% |
| 16 Sept, 03:58 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Sept, 03:27 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Sept, 02:45 UTC | 56% |
| 16 Sept, 02:14 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Sept, 01:53 UTC | 55% |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 UTC | 54% |
| 15 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 53% |
| 15 Sept, 19:43 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Sept, 16:10 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 51% |
| 15 Sept, 15:26 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Sept, 14:34 UTC | 50% |
| 15 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 52% |
| 15 Sept, 12:19 UTC | 49% |
| 15 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 48% |
| 15 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 47% |
| 15 Sept, 10:48 UTC | 47% |
| 14 Sept, 10:40 UTC | 60% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
Outcomes
- Yes 55%
- No 45%
Trade this market on Polymarket →
Stories on this market
- UN mission finds reasonable grounds US committed war crimes in Iran strikes world
- Iran-Gulf Strait of Hormuz Talks Postponed Amid Regional Tensions world
- Western Intel Warns of Iranian Spyware; US Sanctions BitBank Over IRGC Ties world
- US Air Force Colonel Survives Shootdown Over Iran; Iranian Plane Emergency Lands in Mashhad world